AS YOUR TRUSTED REAL ESTATE ADVISOR, I HAVE VALUABLE AND UNIQUE INFORMATION ABOUT THE PULSE OF THE MARKET BASED ON REAL-TIME DATA. FOR EXAMPLE,
As 2026 gets underway, the housing market is opening the year in a more balanced position than we saw last winter. Real-time pricing data shows stability rather than excess: list prices and asking price per square foot are modestly lower than a year ago, giving buyers more negotiating room and better value to start the year. While headline price indexes will take time to reflect this shift, today’s market already feels more accessible than it did at the beginning of 2025.
Home sales are starting the year on a cautious but constructive footing. Weekly pending sales are running slightly above last year’s pace, even after the typical holiday slowdown, suggesting demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s simply waiting for the spring season to gain momentum. With mortgage rates holding in the low-6% range, conditions are meaningfully more favorable than a year ago.
Looking ahead, if mortgage rates remain near current levels, the combination of steadier prices, improved affordability, and higher inventory could support modest growth in home sales through 2026. And with many sellers expected to return to the market as spring unfolds, those who act earlier have the opportunity to position themselves ahead of increasing competition rather than reacting to it.
HERE ARE A FEW INSIGHTS THAT STOOD OUT:
Inventory continues to run higher than last year. Active listings are holding in the 750,000 to 800,000 range nationwide—roughly 13–16% above 2024 levels and firmly back within pre-pandemic norms. While inventory is declining seasonally through the holidays, the broader supply environment continues to favor buyers, with important regional differences across the country.
Home sales are showing early signs of stabilization. Weekly pending sales dipped during recent holiday weeks, which is typical for this time of year, but the underlying trend remains modestly above last year and near multi-year highs for late December. With mortgage rates lower than last winter, the data suggests demand is paused—not lost—as we head into Q1.
Pricing pressure remains evident. Asking prices and price per square foot are now running about 1.5% below last year nationally, a leading signal that points to softer closed-sale prices in the months ahead. While lagging price indexes have yet to fully reflect this shift, buyers in today’s market already have more leverage than they’ve had in several years.
Takeaway: With inventory elevated, prices adjusting, and demand beginning to stabilize, this is a strategic window to test the market thoughtfully. Using the Compass 3-Phased Marketing Strategy—including Private Exclusives and Coming Soon—I can help you evaluate real demand, fine-tune pricing, and position your home ahead of the spring market rather than reacting once competition returns.
Source: Altos Research, Compass, Single Family - Updated through January 3rd, 2026
